Oil above $100. Hormuz half-closed. A ceasefire already falling apart. And the S&P 500 is recovering anyway. Here's what the panic crowd is missing — and what smart investors are doing right now.
I need you to look at one number before you read anything else.
Before the ceasefire was even announced.
Read that again. The market started recovering before any deal. Before Trump's Truth Social post. Before the Islamabad talks. Before any of the good news that everyone was waiting for.
That single data point tells you everything about how markets actually behave during geopolitical crises — and why selling right now would be one of the worst financial decisions you could make.
Let me walk you through what happened, what's happening right now, and why I'm not touching my portfolio.
40 days that shook the world
On 28 February 2026, the US and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran. Within days, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint that carries roughly 20% of global oil and LNG. Brent crude spiked to $108/barrel. Gulf states were getting hit by Iranian drones and missiles. The S&P 500 fell nearly 9% from its February peak. Every finance WhatsApp group in Singapore was on fire.
And yes — it was scary. I won't pretend otherwise.
But here's what happened next. On 8 April, a ceasefire was announced, brokered by Pakistan. Oil dropped. Stocks surged. Markets celebrated.
Then — within hours — Kuwait got hit by drones. Saudi Arabia intercepted missiles. Israel launched its largest strikes yet on Lebanon and called it "Operation Eternal Darkness." Iran threatened to close Hormuz again. The "ceasefire" looked like theatre.
As of today, Sunday 12 April, US and Iranian delegations are sitting in Islamabad trying to negotiate a permanent deal. It could work. It could collapse. Nobody knows.
So why am I still not selling? Because I've seen this movie before.
"Markets don't tank because wars don't end. They tank when earnings collapse. And earnings are still growing at 17% this year."
The history they don't show you on the news
Every time a geopolitical crisis hit, the fear was the same. Every time, the outcome for patient investors was also the same.
- Gulf War 1990–91: Markets fell 20%. Then rose 30% in the next 12 months.
- 9/11 attacks 2001: Markets fell 12% in days. Fully recovered within months.
- Iraq War 2003: Markets fell 3% at the start. Up 26% a year later.
- Russia invades Ukraine 2022: Markets fell 10%. Fully recovered by 2023.
- Iran War 2026: Markets fell ~9%. Already recovering. Story still being written.
Notice the pattern? The investors who panicked locked in losses. The ones who held — or bought more — came out ahead. Every. Single. Time.
Three reasons this war will not crash your portfolio
1. The damage is real but contained. Yes, Hormuz closed. Yes, oil hit $108. But the global economy adapted. Airlines rerouted. Reserves were tapped. Insurance was repriced. The world's financial plumbing bent — it did not break. When Hormuz fully reopens, that oil premium unwinds fast.
2. Earnings are holding. UBS kept its 2026 S&P 500 earnings forecast unchanged at $310/share. FactSet projects 17% earnings growth this year and another 17% in 2027. Bear markets don't happen when profits are growing. That's not opinion — that's 50 years of market history.
3. The Fed is not your enemy right now. Yes, oil-driven inflation delayed rate cuts. But the Fed hasn't hiked. They're on hold — which is miles away from the aggressive tightening that actually caused the 2022 selloff. A patient Fed in a volatile world is still a supportive Fed.
The STI held up better than most ASEAN markets throughout the Iran war. Why? DBS, OCBC and UOB actually benefit from higher-for-longer rates. Our bank-heavy index is a natural structural hedge against the exact macro environment this war created. If you own Singapore banks or a STI ETF, you're already better positioned than you think.
What if Islamabad fails and the war restarts?
I'll be straight with you: if talks collapse completely and Iran shuts Hormuz again, oil spikes back above $120 and markets probably drop another 5–8% in the short term. That's real.
But that's a correction. Not a crash. Not 2008. Not COVID.
A crash needs a recession. A recession needs earnings to collapse. And right now, corporate profits are growing, unemployment is stable, and AI spending is still pouring into the economy like water. The foundation underneath this market is not cracked — it's just shaking.
"If Islamabad fails and markets dip, that is not your warning to exit. That is your invitation to buy."
What I'm actually doing with my money
Nothing dramatic. I'm holding my REITs — dividend income keeps landing every quarter regardless of what Trump posts at midnight. My CPF OA is compounding at 2.5%, completely unbothered by Hormuz. My SRS is untouched.
What I am doing is watchlisting. Any dividend stock or REIT that's been unfairly punished by macro fear — not because its fundamentals changed, but because the news was loud — that's where the opportunity is. War creates noise. Noise creates mispricings. Mispricings are gifts for people with a long time horizon.
The FIRE investor's real superpower isn't picking the right stocks. It's having a portfolio durable enough to not care about 40-day wars, and the emotional discipline to hold while everyone else is panic-selling into headlines.
So will the Iran war tank markets?
No. Here's the one-line summary:
The market already told you the answer on April 6, when it recovered before any deal existed. It's telling you again now. Wars create volatility. They do not, by themselves, create bear markets. Only recessions do that — and we're not there.
Stop watching the news for permission to stay invested. The permission was always yours to give.
Hold. Watch Islamabad, not your portfolio balance. If talks fail and there's a dip, that's your entry — not your exit. Your 20-year compounding journey does not care about a 2-week ceasefire. The war will end. It always does. The question is whether you stayed invested long enough to benefit when it did.
Thank you for reading! If you found this useful, share it with someone who's been stressing over the headlines. And if you have a different view, drop it in the comments — I read every one.
The content on this blog is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. I am not a licensed financial adviser. All investments carry risk, including the loss of principal. Please do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. The views expressed are solely my own and do not represent any organisation I am affiliated with.
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