For the very first time, I am revealing my Ultra Long-Term Portfolio in the SRS account. These long positions are for at least 30 years and these 5 businesses, I believe will continue to grow and not go bust when I reach 62 yrs old. I have added 1,300 OCBC at 7.87 and 1,500 SATS at 3.69 in Mar 2020.
I have fired all my loose bullets at targets that I planned for and depleted my primary war chest. My next level of war chests will be unlocked by redeeming Savings Bonds and withdrawing from fixed deposits. I will do so if the effects of recession start to kick in and cause another round of tumbling in the markets and if my other targets such as Mapletree Industrial Trust hits < 1.70, Mapletree Logistics Trust hits < 1.20 or Parkway Life Reit hits < 2.30.
Meanwhile, I will do nothing and just live life normally, focus on work, relax, sleep, eat, exercise and hope that the virus situation improves and life resumes back to normal in the world soon.
Take care everyone and thanks for reading!
With Love & Peace,
Qiongster
Great to learn from your portfolio. As a HK investor, I am also very interested in the high quality malls of CMT. However, is the mall traffic at this time satisfactory? What are your views as to the impact of rent relief on the coming year's financial results. Also, will you think this stay at home situation alters the consumption pattern of people and makes them less willing to go out even after the virus? Thanks again for your sharing and would love to hear back from you.
ReplyDeleteHi, thanks for reading. The malls in sg are still open as usual right now, with crowd control and social distancing measures in place. It is inevitable that the mall traffic is reduced significantly. People are advised to stay at home but I am still seeing students eating lunch at McDonalds together after school but in food courts, there is an obvious drop in crowd during peak hours. In the short term, I believe the NPI and DPU of CMT will be affected and drop up to 40% due to providing rent relief, declining mall traffic, closure of businesses and smaller tenants that cannot pay rent. Hence, the price of CMT has dropped more than 40% at one point to below 1.60 from the highs of 2.50. In worse case scenario, CMT may have to raise funds through rights offering if it cannot get further bank loans to refinance its short term loans. I am prepared for this scenario and also further dropping of its share price. Nobody knows when the virus is going to disappear but we can be certain that it will eventually disappear. I believe that people who are trapped at home for work, quarantine or to avoid social gatherings for too long a period, will miss shopping and dining at the malls a lot. There will be a spike in revenge shopping and dining in the malls after this virus situation is over. When will we see the crowded malls again? I do not know but we will.
ReplyDeleteAppreciate your sharing very much. Glad to know your insights into the retail sector. Am currently holding SPH Reit already so will await to see how the virus goes before adding retail reits. Thanks again for such a detailed answer.
ReplyDeleteYou are welcome. We are at the beginning of this bear market. Patience is key for long term investment. I wish you all the best in your investment journey. Stay safe and take care!
DeleteThank you. I am holding a small portion of SPH reit but am very disappointed by this quarter results. Is there any reason why the distribution drops so drastically?
ReplyDeleteLooking at the results, net property income and amount for distribution actually went up and the management decided to continue paying themselves and keep a huge chunk of $33m for giving rental rebates or reliefs to tenants in the coming months. They are conserving war chest just like how a company is keeping profits as working capital, which is uncharacteristic of a Reit as unpaid distributions will be taxed. This is not ideal nor wrong but too conservative in my opinion. Do expect further weakness in the share price of SPH reit.
ReplyDeleteThanks for your detailed sharing. I thought reits are required to distribute at least 90% of their distributable income?
ReplyDeleteIt is a guideline by the Securities and Exchange Committee for Reits to distribute 90% of their taxable income to investors as dividends. However, this is applicable for 1 whole year of income and not every quarter. As the subsequent quarters of income are expected to drop, hence the managemement of SPH Reit believe that by cutting DPU 70% will cover the rebate and relief costs and buffer the drop in future quarter distributions and still meet the 90% payout rate for FY2020.
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